Bitcoin Retirement Calculator
Calculate how much Bitcoin you need to retire based on your expenses and timeline
Your expected monthly living expenses
Number of years from today
40-Year Timeline
| Year | Model Price | Stack Value | Expenses | Debt | Cushion |
|---|
Starting APR
The initial annual percentage rate (APR) for borrowing against your Bitcoin collateral.
Key Points:
- • Represents the cost of borrowing against your BTC
- • Default: 15% (typical for crypto-backed loans)
- • Decays over time to Floor APR
- • Higher rates mean higher debt accumulation
As Bitcoin matures and lending markets become more competitive, APRs are expected to decrease over time.
Floor APR
The minimum APR that borrowing rates will decay to over the 40-year timeline.
Understanding Floor APR:
- • APR decays from Starting APR to Floor APR
- • Default: 1% (ultra-mature lending market)
- • Formula: APR = Floor + (Start - Floor) × 0.95^years
- • Reflects long-term market maturity
Lower floor rates assume Bitcoin becomes a widely accepted collateral with competitive lending markets.
Safe LTV (Loan-to-Value)
The maximum percentage of your Bitcoin's value that you can safely borrow against.
LTV Guidelines:
- • 30%: Conservative (default, recommended)
- • 50%: Moderate risk
- • 70%+: High risk of liquidation
- • Lower LTV = more safety cushion
Conservative LTV protects against short-term price volatility and ensures your loan remains viable even if Bitcoin temporarily drops below the power law model.
Inflation Rate
The annual rate at which your living expenses increase over time due to currency inflation.
Typical Inflation Rates:
- • 2%: Official CPI target
- • 7%: True cost of living increase (default)
- • 10%+: High inflation scenarios
- • Compounds annually over 40 years
Higher inflation rates require more Bitcoin to maintain the same purchasing power over time. The default 7% reflects historical asset price inflation.
Power Law Intercept
The intercept parameter from Bitcoin's power law regression analysis.
Technical Details:
- • Default: -1.779
- • Used in: Price = 10^intercept × years^slope
- • Derived from historical regression
- • R² = 95.65% accuracy
This value is derived from fitting Bitcoin's price history to a power law model and should only be adjusted if you have updated regression data.
Power Law Slope (β)
The slope (beta) parameter that determines Bitcoin's price growth rate over time.
Understanding Slope:
- • Default: 5.566
- • Price grows as time^5.566
- • Higher slope = faster growth
- • Remarkably stable since 2009
This exponent defines the power law relationship. A slope of 5.566 means Bitcoin's price has grown proportionally to time raised to the power of 5.566 throughout its history.
Year
The calendar year in your 40-year retirement timeline.
The timeline starts from your selected retirement date and projects forward for 40 years, showing how your Bitcoin retirement strategy performs over time.
Model Price
Bitcoin's projected price for this year according to the power law model.
Formula:
Price = 10^(-1.779) × (Days÷365.25)^5.566
The calculator uses this model price to determine your Bitcoin stack value and maximum borrowing capacity for each year.
Stack Value
The total USD value of your Bitcoin holdings (BTC amount × Model Price).
Example:
- BTC Stack: 2.5 BTC
- Model Price: $500,000
- Stack Value: $1,250,000
Your stack value grows with Bitcoin's power law price appreciation, providing increasing collateral capacity over time.
Expenses
Your annual living expenses for this year, adjusted for inflation.
Calculation:
Expenses = Base × (1 + Inflation)^years
Example: $120k base × (1.07)^10 = $236k
These expenses are borrowed against your Bitcoin each year and contribute to your accumulated debt.
Debt
Your accumulated debt including interest from borrowing against your Bitcoin collateral.
How Debt Accumulates:
- 1. Borrow this year's expenses
- 2. Add to existing debt
- 3. Apply interest (APR)
- 4. Result = new debt balance
Debt must stay below your maximum borrowing capacity (Safe LTV × Stack Value) for the strategy to remain viable.
Cushion
Your safety margin: the difference between what you can borrow and what you owe.
Cushion Status:
- • Green: Healthy (10%+ margin)
- • Orange: Warning (<10% margin)
- • Red: Negative (strategy fails)
The calculator finds the minimum BTC needed to keep your cushion positive for all 40 years. A negative cushion means you would be liquidated.
