Bitcoin vs Gold - Power Law Analysis

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Bitcoin has vastly outperformed gold and will continue to do so. These metrics track Bitcoin's price in terms of gold ounces, showing its superior store-of-value properties.

BTC in Gold

—

oz of Gold

Model in Gold

—

oz Power Law

Gold Multiplier

—

Actual / Model

Gold Price

—

Live • CoinGecko

Gold Slope β

5.35

Power Law

R² Gold

95.2%

Power Law

Log Vol Gold

0.31

Volatility

Gold CAGR

—

Current

Dec 2026

—

oz of Gold

Dec 2030

—

oz of Gold

Dec 2035

—

oz of Gold

Dec 2045

—

oz of Gold

100 oz Trend

—

Trendline Date

Earliest 100 oz

—

At 3× Trend

1000 oz Trend

—

Trendline Date

Earliest 1000 oz

—

At 3× Trend

Historical annual returns across major asset classes. Bitcoin has been the best performing asset in 8 of the last 11 years.

Year	Bitcoin	S&P 500	Bonds	Gold	Winner
2015	+34.5%	+1.4%	+0.5%	-11.0%	Bitcoin
2016	+123.8%	+12.0%	+2.6%	+8.6%	Bitcoin
2017	+1,368.9%	+21.8%	+3.5%	+13.1%	Bitcoin
2018	-73.6%	-4.4%	0.0%	-1.6%	Bonds
2019	+87.7%	+31.5%	+8.7%	+18.8%	Bitcoin
2020	+300.8%	+18.4%	+7.5%	+24.4%	Bitcoin
2021	+59.8%	+28.7%	-2.3%	-3.6%	Bitcoin
2022	-64.3%	-18.1%	-13.0%	+0.4%	Gold
2023	+155.4%	+24.2%	+5.5%	+13.1%	Bitcoin
2024	+121.1%	+23.3%	+1.3%	+26.6%	Bitcoin
2025	-5.9%	+16.4%	+2.5%	+65.2%	Gold
2026 YTD	—	—	—	—	—

Bitcoin Wins

8/11

Years

S&P 500 Wins

0/11

Years

Bonds Win

1/11

Years

Gold Wins

2/11

Years

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