Bitcoin One Million

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BTC Price

$108,502

Approximate • CoinGecko

Model Price

$106K

Power Law

Multiplier

—

Market / Model

24h Change

—

Approximate • CoinGecko

Slope β

5.62

Power Law

R²

95.65%

Power Law

Log Vol

0.2

Volatility

Model CAGR

38.6%

Current

Dec 2025

$115K

Power Law

Dec 2030

$490K

Power Law

Dec 2035

$1.5M

Power Law

Dec 2045

$9.1M

Power Law

$1M Trendline

Jan 1, 2034

Power Law

Earliest $1M

Aug 1, 2029

At 3× trend

$10M Trend

Sep 1, 2046

Power Law

Earliest $10M

Jan 1, 2040

At 3× trend

Historical annual returns across major asset classes. Bitcoin has been the best performing asset in 8 out of the last 10 years.

Year	Bitcoin	S&P 500	Bonds	Gold	Winner
2015	+34.5%	+1.4%	+0.5%	-11.0%	Bitcoin
2016	+123.8%	+12.0%	+2.6%	+8.6%	Bitcoin
2017	+1,368.9%	+21.8%	+3.5%	+13.1%	Bitcoin
2018	-73.6%	-4.4%	0.0%	-1.6%	Bonds
2019	+87.7%	+31.5%	+8.7%	+18.8%	Bitcoin
2020	+300.8%	+18.4%	+7.5%	+24.4%	Bitcoin
2021	+59.8%	+28.7%	-2.3%	-3.6%	Bitcoin
2022	-64.3%	-18.1%	-13.0%	+0.4%	Gold
2023	+155.4%	+24.2%	+5.5%	+13.1%	Bitcoin
2024	+121.1%	+23.3%	+1.3%	+26.6%	Bitcoin
2025 YTD	—	—	—	—	—

Bitcoin Wins

8/10

Years

S&P 500 Wins

0/10

Years

Bonds Win

1/10

Years

Gold Wins

1/10

Years

Bitcoin Alpha Unconference

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